Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
